Sunday, June 15, 2008
And where has toughness gotten us?
Susan Faludi advances an interesting theory in today's New York Times.
"...[A] Barack Obama versus John McCain match-up still has the makings of an epic American gender showdown.
The reason is a gender ethic that has guided American politics since the age of Andrew Jackson. The sentiment was succinctly expressed in a massive marble statue that stood on the steps of the United States Capitol from 1853 to 1958. Named “The Rescue,” but more commonly known as “Daniel Boone Protects His Family,” the monument featured a gigantic white pioneer in a buckskin coat holding a nearly naked Indian in a death’s grip, while off to the side a frail white woman crouched over her infant.
The question asked by this American Sphinx to all who dared enter the halls of leadership was, “Are you man enough?” This year, Senator Obama has notably refused to give the traditional answer...."
So, like Bill Clinton was the first black president, is Obama going to be the first woman? Does this kind of labeling do us any good? I used to have a neighbor who was prissy and whiny and, frankly, annoying. I described him to people with the phrase "He's such a woman." Leaving aside the question of whether I, an avowed feminist, should have been using such an expression at all, is this perception going to hurt Obama? Like Faludi, I tend to think it will not. The reason is that Americans have had enough of bullies and chicken hawks. If McCain is smart, he'll let his sensitive side show.
Labels: gender, mccain, obama, politics, susan faludi, toughness
Saturday, May 31, 2008
Pardon my math, but Obama looks like a winner.
Based on the rough totals that I've been tracking in this primary, Barack Obama has gotten 17,505,420 votes so far if you count
John McCain's numbers have been lower, partly because the GOP primaries were a done deal much sooner. I suspect that this is also because the Republican Party is demoralized by the Bush presidency. Anyway, my count for McCain is 8,105,439. Let's multiply that by 1.5 just to be realistic, and give him 12,158,158.
Then we'll take Hillary Clinton's supporters at their word and assume that half of them dislike Obama so intensely that they will vote for a Republican. I think they call that cutting off your nose to spite your face, except in this case they're asking lots of other Democrats and progressive-minded Independents to sacrifice their noses as well. Half of
Obama would win by 5,109,500 votes, or 11 percentage points.
My point is, even using the relatively pessimistic evidence of primary and caucus votes, November looks like a safe win for the Democrats. In case it isn't obvious, I'm no statistician. What I am is the mother of an eighteen year old who I would rather see in college the next couple of years than possibly drafted into combat. I totally understand how Barbara Bush and Cheney's mama felt about sending their boys to war.
By the way, as bad as my math is, it wouldn't work at all if Hillary Clinton were the nominee. Obama supporters are less likely to switch parties if their guy gets the rug pulled out from under him, but they could definitely stay home. The real difference will be on the McCain side. Demoralized or not, the Republicans will turn out in droves to keep Mrs. Clinton out of the White House. I don't much like or approve of the reasons they'll do this, but I can face facts. That scenario is beyond my fertile imagination to estimate.
Labels: 2008 primary, hillary clinton, mccain, obama, presidential election
