paying-attention

Based on the rough totals that I've been tracking in this primary, Barack Obama has gotten 17,505,420 votes so far if you count Michigan's uncommitted Democrats for him. I frankly don't see how you can count them any other way, since they are Democrats who voted against Hillary Clinton. Even without Michigan, Obama has about 17,267,658 votes.

John McCain's numbers have been lower, partly because the GOP primaries were a done deal much sooner. I suspect that this is also because the Republican Party is demoralized by the Bush presidency. Anyway, my count for McCain is 8,105,439. Let's multiply that by 1.5 just to be realistic, and give him 12,158,158.

Then we'll take Hillary Clinton's supporters at their word and assume that half of them dislike Obama so intensely that they will vote for a Republican. I think they call that cutting off your nose to spite your face, except in this case they're asking lots of other Democrats and progressive-minded Independents to sacrifice their noses as well. Half of Clinton's total -- including Florida and Michigan -- is 8,714,890 votes. If we add that many to Obama's no-Michigan total we get 25,982,548. With Michigan it is 26,220,310. Add the 8,714,890 disgruntled Clintonites to McCain's total and we get 20,873,048.

Obama would win by 5,109,500 votes, or 11 percentage points.

My point is, even using the relatively pessimistic evidence of primary and caucus votes, November looks like a safe win for the Democrats. In case it isn't obvious, I'm no statistician. What I am is the mother of an eighteen year old who I would rather see in college the next couple of years than possibly drafted into combat. I totally understand how Barbara Bush and Cheney's mama felt about sending their boys to war.

By the way, as bad as my math is, it wouldn't work at all if Hillary Clinton were the nominee. Obama supporters are less likely to switch parties if their guy gets the rug pulled out from under him, but they could definitely stay home. The real difference will be on the McCain side. Demoralized or not, the Republicans will turn out in droves to keep Mrs. Clinton out of the White House. I don't much like or approve of the reasons they'll do this, but I can face facts. That scenario is beyond my fertile imagination to estimate.

Note: I've updated the numbers since June 1st, 2008.

Labels: 2008 primary, hillary clinton, mccain, obama, presidential election

# posted by dorothy @ 9:39 PM